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TLDR
The real story here is that the AI-driven GPU price surge headlines are mostly about high-end cards: in eBay sold listings from January to June 2026, the RTX 3090 climbed 47.9% to a $946 median while budget cards like the RTX 3060 fell 2.2% and the RX 7800 XT dropped 4.9%, so the buying frenzy isn't reaching the cards most people actually buy. For local AI speed, the deciding factor is model architecture, not raw VRAM: a dense 27B model spilling into system RAM on an 8GB RTX 4060 crawls at ~6 tokens/s, while the same card handles a mixture-of-experts model with 3B active parameters at ~24 tokens/s, and a 12GB RTX 3060 with a custom llama.cpp build and 2-bit quant runs a 125B MoE model at ~21 tokens/s. If you want a chat-friendly dense-model experience, the used RTX 3090 is the best-supported pick at ~36 tokens/s, but verify any too-good-to-be-true 4090 listing because fakes with missing chips are circulating.
Key points
EBay sold listings from January to June 2026 show RTX 3090 up 47.9% to $946 median while RTX 3060 fell 2.2% to $186.
Llama Perf community database records individual setups, not controlled benchmarks; report counts vary sharply from 189 for RTX 3090 to 5 for RX 7800 XT.
A 12GB RTX 3060 with custom llama.cpp build and 2-bit quant runs a 125B mixture-of-experts model at ~21 tokens/s.
An 8GB RTX 4060 runs a dense 27B model at ~6 tokens/s but reaches ~24 tokens/s on an MoE model with 3B active parameters.
Used RTX 4090s on eBay may be fakes with missing GPU chips or laser-engraved cores; test under load before paying.
A 4-bit 27B dense model has ~15GB of weights, so the RTX 3090's 936 GB/s bandwidth sets a ~62 tokens/s ceiling, with community median at ~36.
Speculative decoding and MTP (multi-token prediction) can push single-card rates above theoretical limits, but accepted-draft rates vary by code vs chat.
Flash Next, a mixture-of-experts model with 11 of 512 experts per layer active, keeps 89% of expert access in GPU cache on a 5090 in one test.
RTX 5060 Ti 16GB pricing ranges wildly from $540 to $85 depending on tracker, so check price on the day of purchase.
Northridge Fix reported an eBay-bought RTX 4090 with no GPU chip and no video memory on the board.
Tools mentioned
Techniques
- Speculative decoding
- Multi-token prediction (MTP)
- Mixture of Experts (MoE)
- Expert caching in GPU memory
- CPU offloading
- Quantization (4-bit, 3-bit, 2-bit)
- Flash attention kernel
- Custom CUDA mega kernel
- Offloaded execution
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Transcript (captions)
You've got $500 to $1,000 for a local AI card. And the RTX 3060 you'd be eyeing sold for 2.2% less on eBay in June than in January. That sits oddly beside a video cards headline saying AI firms are
buying gaming cards by the pallet, which it gives as the reason an RTX 5090 cost $5,000. Over the same stretch, the RX7800 XT fell almost 5% in those eBay sold listings. So, whatever is happening
at the top of the lineup hasn't reached every card. Price trackers come first, then the speeds people post for each cheap card. Since a card only earns its price if it runs your model at a pace
you can live with. One community report has a 12 GB RTX 3060 at about 21 tokens a second on a 125 billion parameter model where a token is roughly a word or a piece of one. An 8 gigabyte RTX 4060
manages about six on a 27 billion one, which looks backwards until you see what each token has to read. By the end, you'll know which prices really doubled, which speeds to trust, and which card
fits which kind of model. Titles like best budget GPUs for local AI in 2026 and local AI server benchmark 3090 versus dual 3060s frame the usual short list. A third asks whether the RTX3090
is still the best budget AI GPU. Between them, they cover a cheap 12 GB card, a used 3090 for its 24 GB, and two 3060s in one box. The speeds quoted online come from individual setups, each with
its own quantization, meaning how many bits each weight gets, plus other settings that change the result. Credit where it's due, the headline has something behind it. Tech for Gamers
reported on the 14th of September that the RTX5090 sat above $5,000, up from a $1,999 launch price. Its Amazon listings started at $5,649
and Newegg was at $6,999. A summary of Tom's Hardware's tracker puts the cheapest US listing at $6,389 by midepptember, which makes the $5,000 in the headlines stale against the
$1,999 launch price call it more than three times. Pilot buying is a reported explanation and part of its photo evidence is disputed. Photos behind the
story came from HKPC and Tech Radar's headline adds that they may be AI generated which is a very 2026 way to document a supply chain. What the sources support is a demand story at the
top of the lineup and the open question is how far down it reaches. You'd expect a demand spike to lift every card. A PC price.watch watch study published the 19th of June 2026 tracked 16 cards
across seven markets in eBay sold listings from January to June and found otherwise. Four cards rose more than 5%, six fell more than 5% and six stayed flat with the RTX3090 topping the risers
as it climbed from $639 to $946 up 47.9%. Among the cards that didn't rise, the plane RTX 3060 median was $186, down 2.2%. And the RTX 4060 was $250,
down 3.4. The RX7800 XT was about $280, down 4.9. June is the date on all three. Not today. Every card that rose has 16 GB of video memory or more, yet the 7,800 XT has 16 and still slipped. So
big memory fits AI demand without proving it. Doubled then fits the 5090 and little else since in that eBay data the 3090 is up about 48%. A search result snippet quotes an August median
of $84.99 for the 5060Ti 16 GB, up from $569.99 in June, which works out to about 41%. The tracker behind it isn't named though, and the retail pages that come
up disagree. Retail prices disagree with those. So each price here carries its tracker and its date. On the 12th of October, GPU price history shows the 12 GB RTX 3060 from $460 new. The June eBay
table lists a plain RTX 3060 at a $186 sold median across seven markets. And it doesn't name the memory size. Treat it as a floor for used 3060s in general. And don't read it as a price for the 12
GB version. On the same tracker, the RTX 5060Ti sat at a $539.99 minimum and $6443 average on the 6th of October, far from that August median. So, check its price
the day you buy. The site GPU pricks lists the 24 GB Arc Pro B60 at $650 new on the 12th of October, which is above its $599 list price. The widest spread of all belongs to the 3090. It has $946
in the June eBay median, $1,050 in a used price article updated the 7th of October, and about $1,450 on GPU Poet in September. On the 12th of October, GPU price history shows a $1,850
minimum, which is probably retail. Four prices for one chip would be a scandal if they measured the same thing, and they don't. One is a sold median, two are used listings, one is probably
retail, and they come from different months. Whatever number you see, ask whether it's sold, used, or retail, and which week it was taken. A price only matters if the card runs your model, and
the speed numbers come from a different kind of source than a benchmark chart suggests. Llama Perf, the community database behind most of these speed numbers, says on its about page that it
records individual setups, not a controlled benchmark. Reports come from the local llama subreddit, GitHub, hugging face, forums, and direct submissions, and a language model
extracts the fields from each one. Rules reject results that beat a card's theoretical limits. Every median counts plain single device runs only, while speculative decoding runs and offloaded
runs where part of the model sits in system RAM get tagged separately. That makes the site useful, though it's still a list of what people report. Report counts are uneven with 189 for the 3090,
58 for the 5060 Ti, and 51 for the 3060. Against those, the RX7800 XT has five. The Arc Pro B60 has seven, and the RTX 4060 has three. So, those last three rest on a handful of people. Every speed
from here is a community report, and the badge in the corner of the screen will stay there to say so. To see why those speeds vary so much, picture a writer who has to walk to a library shelf and
read through the whole reference book before putting down each single word. Walking and reading set the pace, and the writing barely matters. A model works much the same way since producing
one token means reading its weights out of memory. The weights are the numbers that make up the model. Speed tops out at memory bandwidth, the gigabytes a second the card can deliver, divided by
the bytes read per token. An RTX3090 delivers 936 GB a second and a 4bit 27 billion parameter model is an estimated 15 GB. That's a bit over half a bite per weight once the extra scaling data is
counted. Dividing 936 x 15 puts the ceiling near 62 tokens a second on a 3090. The community median for that model is about 36 tokens a second, comfortably under the ceiling, which is
what real work looks like compared with a perfect read. You'd expect 62 to be a hard wall, yet the same page lists 111.7 tokens a second with llama CPP and a drafting trick called MTP. It also shows
95 and a single card report of 140, a 100 on two 3090s with V LLM belongs aside because two cards have twice the memory bandwidth. Speculative decoding and MTP, short for multi-token
prediction, are what move the wall. Several upcoming tokens get drafted and the full model checks them in a single pass over the weights. One red can therefore produce more than one token.
Divide 140 by 62 and each red has to yield a bit over two tokens. A 4060 row shows the accounting since its MTP accepted 99 of 126 draft tokens which rounds to 79% and every accepted draft
makes each red of the weights worth more. code is easy to predict, so drafts get accepted often, and that's the setup behind the 140. The report is code generation on 1390 with Q4KM weights and
about 80,000 tokens of context, which makes it a best case, and chat will land lower. Behind the 140, the report credits a custom CUDA mega kernel, and no code link came with it. The closest
public thing to check it against is Loose Or's Mega Kernel project, whose readme describes something narrower. That project fuses all 24 layers of a 0.8 billion parameter Quinn model into
one CUDA launch, which removes about 100 separate small jobs sent to the GPU for every token. On a 3090, that tiny model reaches 413 tokens a second. Loose credits its 27 billion speedups to a
different technique, speculative decoding. So, nothing in the makaker's own readme or repo confirms the mega kernel label on the 140 report, which may be a different custom build. An
unconfirmed the 19th of September news report claims 127 tokens a second for one request on a 3090 with patched VLM and about 1,035 at 64 concurrent requests across 64 users. That 1,035 is
a total. So, one person in one chat window gets about 16 tokens a second when it's divided evenly. That makes it a fine number for a server bill and a misleading one to quote to a person
sitting at a desk. A 3090's typical 27 billion speed is about 36 tokens a second. And since those 100 plus numbers are reported but conditional, budget for the typical one and treat the rest as
headroom. There's a second way to get speed, which is to change the model. And 27 billion quen 3.8 8 is dense, meaning all 27 billion parameters run for every token. Quinn 3.8 flash. Next, released
the 26th of August 2026 is a mixture of experts model, meaning each layer holds many separate blocks of weights called experts, and a token only uses a few of them. Here, that's 11 of 512 per layer
plus one shared block. Across 48 layers, only 6 billion of the 125 billion main parameters are active for any token. put six billion next to 27 billion and that's a bit over a fifth. So each token
touches roughly a fifth of what the dense 27 billion does. Flash next still has more than four times as many parameters in total. So most of it sits idle on any single token. Speed depends
on what each token has to read and a model that reads a slice can keep most of itself in cheaper slower places like system RAM. Llama CPP can keep attention on the GPU and put the experts in system
RAM. A merge change pull request 29887 from the 7th of October adds a cache of frequently used experts in GPU memory. Only the cache misses then cross the PCIe link between card and computer. In
one test, the hit rate was 89%. That was on an RTX 5090 with an Epic server host, which isn't budget hardware. Speed went from 30.8 to 67.8 tokens a second with 65.4 GB of experts in play. Here, the
library picture stops fitting because it has one book read in full, while a mixture of experts model picks a few of its experts aresh for every token. Caching only helps when the same experts
keep getting picked, which an 89% hit rate says they often are. Taking the cards in turn, the RX7800 XT16 GB has a report of flash. Next at 64.9 tokens a second of aggregate decode. Aggregate
can mean a total across parallel streams, so it isn't confirmed as one user speed. Behind it were the Strata engine, meaning the program that runs the model plus a roughly three-bit quant
experts offloaded to host RAM and a 41,79 token context. The card has only five reports on Llama CPP with Vulcan at 100,000 tokens of context. The same card
runs the dense 27 billion Quinn 3.8 at 30 tokens a second. Engine quant and context all differ from the flash next row, so don't read the gap as a clean doubling. The 24 GB Arc Pro B60 rows are
all over the place. One shows 53.3 tokens a second on 27 billion Quinn 3.8 at Q4KM with 32K context and a flash attention kernel. Other rows on the same page show 15.3, 22.0, and 22.2. And one
user calls the card slow for agentic tools. With a spread that wide, the card is a bargain or a regret depending on which row you read first. and only seven reports exist in all mid-range. The 5060
TI 16 gigabyte has 58 reports overall. One row on its page shows 27 billion Quen 3.8 at 28.8 tokens a second at 3bit, a more compressed quant than the 3090s 4-bit figure. Which tracker you
trust sets its price? Anywhere from $540 to about $85. Deepest data belongs to the used RTX3090 with 189 reports and about 36 tokens a second typical on the 27 billion. Two
3060s at the $460 minimum add up to $920. And one dual card report has the same model at 56. At the bottom, the 8 GB RTX 4060 shows 27 billion Quinn 3.8 at 6.0 0 tokens a second with CPU
offload and 16,384 tokens of context. Even with MTP on a 35 billion mixture of experts model with 3 billion active, the same card reaches 24.2.
Only three reports back the card, so treat both rows lightly. At six tokens a second, the answer arrives about as fast as you can read it, which is fine for a poem and painful for any model that
thinks out loud before it answers. On GPU price history as of the 12th of October, the 4060 starts at $530 within $10 of the 5060Ti's the 6th of October minimum. Now, the opening puzzle has its
pieces. Starting with the 4060, it has 8 GB of memory and 272 GB a second of bandwidth, while a dense 27 billion at 4bit is roughly 15 GB. So, layers spill into slower system RAM. Every token
reads every layer of a dense model, including the ones sitting in system RAM. So the slow part sets the pace, which fits the six tokens a second. Take the 3060 row, a 125 billion parameter
model at roughly 2 bits per weight, about 35 GB or more by a rough count. Since 12 GB of video memory plus 16 GB of RAM can't hold that, the rest has to stream from storage. Each token needs
only 11 of 512 experts plus a shared one. So what has to come from the slow places system RAM or storage is a small slice of the model. Exactly how this build moves that slice is still open on
its own. The 4060 shows the split with six tokens a second on the dense 27 billion against 24.2 on the 35 billion model that activates 3 billion. Those are two single rows with their own
settings. So read them as a pattern. Likeliest reason for the 3060 21 is the same because each token only reads a slice of the model and a model built to read a slice can live mostly outside the
card. Behind the row sits a custom llama CPP build with expert prefetching, a flag called MOE direct IO and a roughly two-bit quant. The report doesn't say what that flag does or how fast the
storage was and the quality cost of that quant is unmeasured. Other Flash Next rows on that 30 page run from 10 to 40 tokens a second, so 21 sits in the middle of a wide range. With a custom
build and a heavily compressed model, the recipe is a long way from a plug-and-play upgrade. If you already have a 12 GB card or want a cheap one, a big mixture of experts model is worth
trying. A new 12 GB RTX 3060 starts at $460 on GPU price history as of the 12th of October. And the June eBay median of $186 doesn't say which memory size it covers. One report shows around 21
tokens a second with a custom Llama CPP build, a roughly 2bit quant, 16 GB of RAM and storage for the rest. For someone who wants dense 27 billion at a chatfriendly speed, the better pick is
the used 3090 with the deepest data and about 36 tokens a second. Typical prices run $946 as a June sold median and $1,50 in an article updated the 7th of October. The $1,50 figure is a little
over a $1,000 budget, and other trackers show $1,450 or more. If that's over budget, the 5060Ti 16 GB at 28.8 tokens a second and 3bit is the better covered step down.
The ARK Pro B60 is a gamble on which of its four rows matches your setup. Two 3060s have a single report at 56 tokens a second, which is worth chasing only if you can reproduce it. For someone with
an 8 GB card or a 4060 in the cart, skip it for dense models. The 1460 row shows six tokens a second, which is what spilling a dense 27 billion into system RAM looks like. Keep it to mixture of
experts models where the same card did 24.2. If a used 4090 shows up in your search at a price that looks too good to be true, the reports below show what can be
inside. Tom's Hardware reported that a repair shop Northridge Fix received an ISUS TU RTX 4090 bought secondhand on eBay with no GPU chip and no video memory on the board. At least a board
with no chip and no video memory has nothing to overheat. Such cards come mostly from modding operations in China that strip donor cards for their chips and memory. The shop says an April 2026
repair report found a fake ROG stricks 4090 with a laser engraved GPU core and shaved memory chips on a clean looking board. German outlet mine MMO reported in June 2025 on a customer who paid
about €1,200 each for 4490s and three of them were fakes with a laser marked AD 10002 label and fake memory. Check the QR code position and the substrate color, the repair tech advised, and
treat a 4090 priced far below market as the warning sign. As general advice, test the card under load before you pay, or use a payment method with buyer protection. No source gives the share of
fakes among used 4090s, so treat each listing on its own. Back at the headline, pallets of cards may explain the 5090. In the June eBay data, the rises landed on cards with 16 gigabytes
or more, though not every 16 gigabyte card rows. The 3060, 4060, and 7,800 XT were flat or falling. So, the rule is to check what each token has to read before you check what the card costs. A dense
model has to fit in video memory to run well. A mixture of experts model can leave most of itself outside. Every price here is dated the 12th of October 2026 or earlier and prices move. So
check the tracker again the week you buy. If you run a big mixture of experts model on a 12 gigabyte card, how did the two-bit quant hold up on your own work?